10/24/2002
The Science of Polling -- Has McBride pulled ahead of Jeb? (also here.) Or has McBride peaked out?
Beats me. All I know is there's a lot of contradictory and counter-intuitive polling out there. At the end of September a St. Pete Times/ Miami Herald poll found Bush getting a puzzling 24 percent of the black vote. Unlikely from what I've seen. And what about the Republican poll that found no more than 10 percent of voters knew state taxes had been cut? Huh? (12th graph or so, look deep down. Aside: My theory is it's because the tax cuts were so narrowly targeted to the rich and so often accompanied by cost-shifting to local government that most people didn't feel any tax relief. But there I go again . . . )
Conclusion: Nobody knows who's ahead. (Despite the Jebcentric Sayfie Review's red-letter whistling in the dark today.)
Beats me. All I know is there's a lot of contradictory and counter-intuitive polling out there. At the end of September a St. Pete Times/ Miami Herald poll found Bush getting a puzzling 24 percent of the black vote. Unlikely from what I've seen. And what about the Republican poll that found no more than 10 percent of voters knew state taxes had been cut? Huh? (12th graph or so, look deep down. Aside: My theory is it's because the tax cuts were so narrowly targeted to the rich and so often accompanied by cost-shifting to local government that most people didn't feel any tax relief. But there I go again . . . )
Conclusion: Nobody knows who's ahead. (Despite the Jebcentric Sayfie Review's red-letter whistling in the dark today.)
