7/26/2004
Senate Poll
A very interesting U.S. Senate primary poll done by the T-U and the Sun-Sentinel. (Spot the obligatory Susan McManus quote. Surprise: she likes the way the Republican field is shaping up.)
Political unknown Gallagher is 9 points above Johnnie Byrd who still can't find any traction outside the religious right. McCollum is barely ahead of Martinez. The pros see Martinez as frontrunner after his ads come out. Worse for McCollum, any improvement by Byrd will come out of McCollum's support. Byrd already has had some success using the stem-cell research issue to take right-to-life support from McCollum. (Martinez has also promised to restrict this promising research.)
Deutsch's strategy of going nutzoid, mad-dog negative against Penelas and then Castor (Jihad U!!!!!!) is paying off; he's No. 2 with a bullet. He may not win, but he'll sure do damage to anyone who does. If Deutsch does win the primary, his negatives will be in the stratosphere by August and the party will not be able to unit behind him. Either way: Deutsch may make McCollum/Martinez our U.S. senator.
Meanwhile, Penelas' antiwar strategy reeks of desperation. The base hates him and this won't change that. This will, however, hit hurt him among moderates. Even with 21 percent undecided, he's through.
Interesting gender gaps with both parties' frontrunners. Castor and the Deutsch have stronger support among Democratic women, and McCollum, Martinez and Gallagher have slightly stronger support among Republican men than women. Republican women are surprisingly undecided -- fully one third -- perhaps indicating unhappiness with all their options in this race.
The Sun-Sentinel version is here.
(Via the Republicans at Sayfie)
Political unknown Gallagher is 9 points above Johnnie Byrd who still can't find any traction outside the religious right. McCollum is barely ahead of Martinez. The pros see Martinez as frontrunner after his ads come out. Worse for McCollum, any improvement by Byrd will come out of McCollum's support. Byrd already has had some success using the stem-cell research issue to take right-to-life support from McCollum. (Martinez has also promised to restrict this promising research.)
Deutsch's strategy of going nutzoid, mad-dog negative against Penelas and then Castor (Jihad U!!!!!!) is paying off; he's No. 2 with a bullet. He may not win, but he'll sure do damage to anyone who does. If Deutsch does win the primary, his negatives will be in the stratosphere by August and the party will not be able to unit behind him. Either way: Deutsch may make McCollum/Martinez our U.S. senator.
Meanwhile, Penelas' antiwar strategy reeks of desperation. The base hates him and this won't change that. This will, however, hit hurt him among moderates. Even with 21 percent undecided, he's through.
Interesting gender gaps with both parties' frontrunners. Castor and the Deutsch have stronger support among Democratic women, and McCollum, Martinez and Gallagher have slightly stronger support among Republican men than women. Republican women are surprisingly undecided -- fully one third -- perhaps indicating unhappiness with all their options in this race.
The Sun-Sentinel version is here.
(Via the Republicans at Sayfie)
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I like Castor, and plan to vote for her, but her campaign management team needs to tighten up quickly. She is tending to ignore her base in Tampa Bay, no-showing at events previously confirmed or (in most cases) sending her Hillsborough County Commissioner daughter instead. Her people stiffed a campaign coordinator here in Polk who had already acquired a date for a meet-and-greet/fundraiser and on the basis of that rented a venue, only to be told the had a "scheduling conflict"...they had set up another fundraiser in South Florida for the same day afterward.
Thankfully, she's a very good Democratic activist and saved her non-refundable deposit by turning it into an event for a couple of county commission candidates.
That's not the way to win friends and influence people.
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Thankfully, she's a very good Democratic activist and saved her non-refundable deposit by turning it into an event for a couple of county commission candidates.
That's not the way to win friends and influence people.
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