12/08/2004
U of Q looks ahead
Two Florida polls are out from the U of Q, and like most long-way-out-from-elections polls, they are all over the place. The AP account focuses on lack of enthusiasm for a presidential run by Jeb and only soft support for US Sen. Bill Nelson.
The Quinnipiac University poll was generally accurate during the election, but understated Democratic strength. Its last poll before the election had Bush winning the state 51 - 43. He won 52-47. Likewise it saw Martinez winning the Senate, 49-44; it was 49-48. (Can't link directly to individual polls because of the way the pages are coded. Go to the poll index page to find the releases.)
The poll sees Florida split on Pres. Bush, giving him a 49 percent approval rating. Jeb has a 55% approval rating, down from Hurricane season highs. (And only 31 percent said they want him to run for president.)
"The fact Florida voters are evenly split on President Bush's approval indicates it was as much a case of Kerry losing Florida as Bush winning it," says Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, in the press release.
What? No mandate?
Bill Nelson's approval rating is an anemic 46% but only 17 disapprove of him. A lot of people just don't know one way or another -- 37%.
Strangely, 48% of Republicans approve of him and 46% of Democrats. That's right, his approval rating is slightly higher among Republicans. Still, 36% of those asked say reelect him and 40% say don't. Among Democrats, 39% say don't. A quarter of those asked are undecided.
Nelson's No. 1 problem -- Surprisingly few people know much of anything about him.
Nelson's No. 2 problem -- He's surprisingly weak with the Democratic base. His support is not much different between Democrats and Republicans. A situation like that, left unfixed, could encourage a primary challenge.
And finally, the poll finds that 47 percent of football fans say the University of Florida should not have hired Steve Spurrier to coach the Gators.
The Quinnipiac University poll was generally accurate during the election, but understated Democratic strength. Its last poll before the election had Bush winning the state 51 - 43. He won 52-47. Likewise it saw Martinez winning the Senate, 49-44; it was 49-48. (Can't link directly to individual polls because of the way the pages are coded. Go to the poll index page to find the releases.)
The poll sees Florida split on Pres. Bush, giving him a 49 percent approval rating. Jeb has a 55% approval rating, down from Hurricane season highs. (And only 31 percent said they want him to run for president.)
"The fact Florida voters are evenly split on President Bush's approval indicates it was as much a case of Kerry losing Florida as Bush winning it," says Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, in the press release.
What? No mandate?
Bill Nelson's approval rating is an anemic 46% but only 17 disapprove of him. A lot of people just don't know one way or another -- 37%.
Strangely, 48% of Republicans approve of him and 46% of Democrats. That's right, his approval rating is slightly higher among Republicans. Still, 36% of those asked say reelect him and 40% say don't. Among Democrats, 39% say don't. A quarter of those asked are undecided.
Nelson's No. 1 problem -- Surprisingly few people know much of anything about him.
Nelson's No. 2 problem -- He's surprisingly weak with the Democratic base. His support is not much different between Democrats and Republicans. A situation like that, left unfixed, could encourage a primary challenge.
And finally, the poll finds that 47 percent of football fans say the University of Florida should not have hired Steve Spurrier to coach the Gators.
